Mortgage bonds weaken amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, oil spikes, and weak auctions, pushing rates higher. Upcoming Core PCE data tomorrow and Fed meeting next week add volatility. Get expert guidance from {LO_NAME} on locking in rates today. (158 characters)
Holden Kellerhals, Lending Strategist
NEXA Lending
Phone: (727) 591-5591
Email: [email protected]
NMLS# 2646551
Company NMLS# 1660690
Licensed in: FL, IA
Calculations based on 30-year fixed mortgage. PMI applies when down payment is less than 20%. Bank Statement loans are considered Non-Qualified Mortgage (Non-QM) products. Qualification is based on the review of personal or business bank statements rather than tax returns. Interest rates and down payment requirements for these products may be higher than those of conventional government-backed mortgages (such as FHA, VA, or Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loans). Not all applicants will qualify. Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is subject to increase after consummation. Advertised terms are based on a loan amounts with a 760 FICO, Loan-to-Value, and 30-year fixed/ARM rate. Monthly payments includes principal and interest only; actual payment will be higher with taxes and insurance and HOA. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. This is not a commitment to make a loan. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates and programs are subject to change without prior notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. All approvals are subject to underwriting guidelines. Not all products are available in all states or for all dollar amounts. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. VA loans subject to individual VA Entitlement amounts and eligibility, qualifying factors such as income and credit standards, and property limits. NEXA Mortgage, LLC is not affiliated with any government agencies. These materials are not from VA, HUD or FHA, and were not approved by VA, HUD or FHA, or any other government agency. Copyright © 2025 NEXA Mortgage, LLC NMLS#1660690. AZMB#0944059. 5559 S Sossaman Rd, Bldg #1 Ste #101, Mesa, AZ 85212, 602-344-9333. NEXA Mortgage, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender. All rights reserved.
Mortgage Rates Continue to Climb on Oil Spike and Iran Tensions
March 13, 2026
Mortgage markets are experiencing heightened volatility this week as geopolitical tensions escalate. Bonds have weakened significantly, leading to upward pressure on rates. Key data releases and upcoming Fed decisions are keeping investors on edge.
Bonds sold off sharply due to rising oil prices from Iran escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, overshadowing tame CPI data that matched expectations. A poorly received 10-year auction exacerbated the sell-off, with mortgage bonds off notably and MBS movement showing further weakening. Tomorrow's Core PCE inflation data, along with GDP revisions and other releases, looms large ahead of next week's Fed meeting. This combination has driven rates higher by a quarter to half a point in recent sessions. Float/lock guidance recommends locking for 7, 15, and 30-day scenarios, while considering a float for 30+ days.
With no recent mortgage news or housing inventory data available, the focus remains on broader affordability challenges amid rising rates. Elevated oil prices are stoking inflation fears, which could prolong higher borrowing costs. Homebuyers are navigating a market where rate volatility impacts monthly payments and purchasing power. Sellers may face slower demand if affordability continues to strain.
For buyers, the current upward trend in rates underscores the importance of timely decisions, especially with key data tomorrow potentially adding more swings. Sellers should monitor how these dynamics affect buyer qualification and competition. Locking in sooner aligns with guidance for shorter timeframes to protect against further increases. Those with longer horizons might weigh floating amid uncertainty. Consulting a professional can clarify personalized strategies.
Geopolitical risks and upcoming economic data are dominating mortgage markets, pushing rates higher despite steady inflation prints. Staying informed helps navigate this volatile environment effectively.